2. Ajo AZ Hazmat Echo Report. Washington, DC: Office of Hazardous Materials Transportation; 9/13/88.
3. Bonnieville, KY Hazardous Materials Incident Report Form F 5800.1. Huntington, WV: C. I. Whitten Transfer Company; May 23, 1985.
4. Bonnieville, KY Hazmat Echo Report. Washington, DC: Office of Hazardous Material Transportation; 9/13/88.
5. Hendrick, K.H.; Benner,L. Investigating Accidents with STEP. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1987.
6. Ishpeming, MI Hazardous Materials Incident Report Form 5800: IRECO Chemical Co; 08/26/73.
7. Ishpeming MI Hazmat Echo Report. Washington, DC: Office of Hazardous Materials Transportation; 9/13/88.
7a. Hayakawa, S.I.,; Language in Thought and Action, (Fourth Edition); New York, NY; Harcourt, Brace, Janovich, Inc. 1972 p 155.
8. Johnson, W. G. MORT Safety Assurance Systems. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1980.
9. Keystone, WV Hazardous Materials Incident Report Form 5800: Austin Powder Co.; 04/05/79.
10. Keystone, WV Hazmat Echo Report. Washington, DC: Office of Hazardous Material Transportation; 9/13/88.
11. Lincoln, AL Hazardous Materials Incident Report Form F 5800.1. Marietta, GA: McGil Specialized Carriers; 6/8/ 87.
12. Lincoln, AL Hazmat Echo Report. Washington, DC: Office of Hazardous Material Transportation; 9/13/88.
13. National Transportation Safety Board. Collision Between A Tractor-Semi-trailer Transporting Bombs and an Automobile, Resulting in Fire and Explosions, Checotah, Oklahoma, August 4, 1985. Washington, DC: United States Government, National Technical Information Service; March 3, 1987.
14. National Transportation Safety Board. Highway Accident Report -- Automobile-Truck Collision Followed by Fire and Explosion of Dynamite Cargo on U. S. Highway 78, Near Waco Georgia on June 4, 1971. Washington, DC: United States Government, National Technical Information Service; September 21, 1972.
15. National Transportation Safety Board. Railroad Accident Report -- Southern Pacific Transportation Co. Freight Train 2nd BSM Munitions Explosion, Benson, Arizona, May 24, 1973. Washington, DC: United States Government, National Technical Information Service; February 26, 1975.
16. Roland, H.E.; Moriarty, B. System Safety Engineering and Management. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 1983.
17. West Frankfort, IL Hazardous Materials Incident Report Form F 5800.1. Pittsfield, IL: Explosives Inc; 12/18/ 73.
18. West Frankfort, IL Hazmat Echo Report. Washington, DC: Office of Hazardous Material Transportation; 9/13/88.
For the purposes of this hazardous materials transportation risk assessment, the intended meanings of key terms are shown below.
Exposure for the purposes of this study is an informed estimate of the type, nature and number of persons or things within range of reasonably foreseeable effects of mishaps involving a hazardous material in transportation.
Mishap severity rating is an informed estimate of the probable severity of the consequences of reasonably foreseeable mishaps in anticipated exposures, defined by the greatest degree of injury, illness, property damage, or loss of system functions likely to flow from a mishap events set during the life of the activity. Mishap severity estimates are assigned a Roman numeral values according to the following criteria:
(1) Category I - Catastrophic. May result in multiple deaths or severe injuries or permanent disabilities, or loss of a major facility or place of public assembly, or long-term disruption or loss of essential systems or their outputs.
(2) Category II - Critical. May result in a single death or severe or disabling injury, severe or disabling illness, major property damage, or serious disruption in system functions.or outputs. Serious disruption in system functions is loss of functions or outputs for not over 10 days
(3) Category III - Marginal. May result in minor injury or illness, minor property damage or loss, or minor disruption defined as an injury or illness that can result in one or more days away from work. Minor property damage is a value of $10,000 or less, and minor disruption in system functions is loss of function or outputs for less than 48 hours.
(4) Category IV. - Negligible. Probably will result in noticeable but negligible momentary effects to exposed personnel, less than $1000 damage to property or negligible disturbance of system functions or outputs, or of interest because it is a violation of applicable regulations regardless of the negligible consequences.
* Note: Lesser losses are not assigned a severity rating and consequently are not assigned any RAC ratings.
Mishap probability rating is an estimate of the probability of reasonably foreseeable mishaps of the estimated severity occurring over the life of an activity, based on an assessment of influences such as frequency of the occurrence of the events set, location and affected population. Mishap probability subcategories are assigned a letter code according to the following criteria:
(1) Subcategory A - Frequent. Likely to occur frequently over the life of the activity.
( 2) Subcategory B - Reasonably Probable. Will occur several times in life of the activity.
(3) Subcategory C - Occasional. Likely to occur sometime in the life of the activity.
( 4) Subcategory D - Remote. So unlikely it is reasonable to conclude that this mishap will not be experienced in the life of the activity.
Mishap For these safety risks assessment purposes, an unplanned course of events (process) that results in death, injury, or illness, or in damage to or loss of equipment or property, or disruption of the intended functioning of a system. Mishaps are generally identified by their reporting threshold which is expressed in terms of the loss and type of loss involved.
Risk A value assigned the combination of the estimated severity of reasonably foreseeable mishaps and the estimated probability of their occurrence for anticipated exposures to a hazardous material energy source; the determination which must be made by the Secretary of Transportation to implement PL 93-633.
APPENDIX
APPENDIX 1. DATA SEARCH RECORD
On October 10, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. began a search for reports of accidents during transportation of class A explosives by railway and by truck. The following describes the steps of this search.
October 10 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. requested National Technical Information Service (NTIS) to conduct a manual search through the Government Annual Reports index. NTIS staff reported that it was not possible to conduct a computer search for desired reports. Th manual search produced the NTSB report of the Checotah Oklahoma Aug. 4, 1985 accident.
Week of October 10, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted C. Batton at the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), at 800 Independence Avenue. He advised that the Office of Public Inquiry Room 805-f, retained accident reports of this type. A manual search of the reports index there identified two reports that were on file at NTIS; Benson Az May 24, 1973 and Waco GA June 4, 1971.
October 13, 1989 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) Literature Division, at 366-5972. Ms Russell referred us to the Accident Investigation Division, 366-5384. Mr Nash said that their reports weren't easily accessible because of the way they are stored, and referred us to the Information Management Division 366-4198 who collect data for statistical analysis. Ms Small advised that reports of this type are not kept on file, and referred us to OHMT.
Week of October 10, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted Mr. Tom Helgas at the Federal Highway Administration (FHA) 366-2956. In response to our request, Mr. Helgas indicated he could not find any reports. He also said "they keep records on hand for six years and then they are gone". Where the reports went, he did not know. In two subsequent conversations Mr. Helgas still could not provide any information.
October 13, 1989 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted the Office of Motor Carriers (formerly Bureau of Motor Carrier Safety) at the Department of Transportation 366-2970. Ms Price said they did not have that type of report on hand. No reports were made available by BMCS.
October 14, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted Mr. Bruce Fine 366-0522 at the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). Mr. Fine suggested calling A. Tabor 366-0511. Mr. Tabor referred to the FRA accident report index and provided the order number for the April 28 1973 Roseville California accident report. This report had gone to archives. On Jan 9, 1989 a written request was sent to: Mr. W. Loftus Executive Director Federal Railroad Administration 400 7th Street SW Washington DC 20590. This report was requested under the Freedom of Information Act because the U. S. Government was involved in the litigation about the accident. On January 11, Barbara Bell advised that she was acting on our request. The report had not been received at the time this report was prepared.
October 14,1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted G. Meier at the American Association of Railroads (AAR). Mr. Meier provided several dates and locations of truck and railway accidents involving the transport of Class A explosives.
Week of October 17, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted the American Association of Railroads Bureau of Explosives at 50 F street NW Wash DC 639-2229 and spoke with Mr. Paul Williams. Mr. Williams indicated that they had the "Roseville Report". Events Analysis, Inc. obtained a copy of their internal report on Nov. 10, 1988 along with newspaper clippings at the Bureau after reviewing their files.
October 14, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted F. Smith at the Institute Makers of Explosives (IME) 1120 19th street NW suite 310 Washington DC.. Mr. Smith indicated that their information is for carriers use only and would not provide any information. He also said that the FRA and the FHA had the same reports on file.
Week of October 17, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted Mr. Ken Taylor at the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) in New York 617-770-3000. In response to our request Mr. Taylor conducted a search of their database. NFPA records involve Class C explosives almost exclusively. NFPA does not have any reports which were not available elsewhere.
October 17, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted J. Chapman at the Department of Transportation (DOT) Office of Hazardous Materials and Regulations and requested several reports identified by an earlier data search provided by Dr. Schultz. Events Analysis, Inc. received two reports by mail, however, the other reports requested were not sent as their reader/printer was inoperable. Events Analysis, Inc. was advised on October 20, 1988 the others reports would be sent when repairs were made. November 1, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. copied information from the remaining 5800 accident reports by hand as the reader/printer was still inoperable.
November 10, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. corresponded with the American Insurance Association (AIA) in Washington DC and requested the Roseberg Fire, Explosion and Conflagration report. AIA suggested calling Mr. R. Crowse in the New York office. Mr. Crowse instructed us to send a written request and $6.00 to: Librarian-Engineering and Safety Service, 85 John Street, New York 10038. Events Analysis, Inc. received this report Nov. 25, 1988. It occurred Aug. 7, 1959, was judged obsolete, and was therefore not used.
November 14, 1988 Events Analysis, Inc. contacted the FRA legal office and spoke with Mr. T.Phemister 366-0511. Events Analysis, Inc. inquired about getting access to a copy of the April 27, 1973 Roseville Ca court proceedings. Mr. Phemister said that the FRA did not have a copy on file and suggested calling attorney Mr. Hollis Dunsing 639-2506 at the American Association of Railroads. When we spoke with Mr. Dunsing he said their copy had been destroyed. He suggested calling the Court House in Sacramento Ca.
No further search was attempted, since the preceding resulted in 10 reports, deemed sufficient for the purposes of this demonstration study.
APPENDIX 2. CASE WORKSHEETS
CHART 1.
Checotah , OK 4 August 1985 Fire & Explosions
CHART 2. Benson , AZ 24 May 1973 Fire & Explosions
CHART 3. Waco 4 June 1971 Fire & Explosion
CHART 4. Roseville, CA 28 April 1973 Fire & Explosions
CHART 5. Ajo AZ 25 June 1976 Fire
CHART 6. Bonnieville, KY 10 May 1985 Fire
CHART 7. W. Frankford, IL 18 Dec 1973 Fire
CHART 8. Lincoln, AL 20 May 1987 Fire & Explosion
CHART 9. Keystone, WV 5 April 1979 Fire & Explosion
CHART 10. Ishpeming, MI 26 August 1973 Fire
APPENDIX 3. ACCIDENT TYPE MODELS
This section presents the generaized investigation models.
11 CHART H Type 1 Class A Explosives Accident, vehicle collision, fire and en masse detonation.
12 CHART I Type 2 Class A Explosives Accident, Single vehicle mishap, fire and detonation.
13, CHART J Type 3 Class A Explosives Accident, Single vehicle fire, no explosion.
