© 1979-2018 by Ludwig Benner, Jr. .All rights reserved.


Guide 4

GUIDANCE FOR ACQUIRING
STEP-MES INPUT DATA BBS

For Use During STEP-MES-Based Investigations

Estimated reading time: 25 minutes.

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION
OBJECTIVE
HOW TO IDENTIFY SOURCES/A>
ACQUIRING INPUTS FROM PEOPLE
APPLYING THE INVESTIGATORS' GENERAL DECISION MODEL FINDING INPUTS FROM CHANGES (CTM) OBJECTIVE
APPLICABILITY
DATA REQUIRED
DATA SOURCES
DATA PRESENTATION
CHANGE TRACKING PROCEDURE COMMENTS

Go to Guide: 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11


INTRODUCTION

A continuing challenge for investigators during investigations is trying to locate nd acquire information about what happened, and transforming it into inputs that can be used to describe what happened. Numerous tools are available to help investigators acquire information to transform into input data building blocks for STEP-MES matrix arrays.

This Guide presents some of the more helpful approaches and tools for finding and acquiring such information. It includes tools for finding and acquiring information from people, things, and observations of changes. Additional examples of tools for acquiring data from energy flows, loss charts and a safety system model are located in Guides 5-9. A 1997 FPP publication “Guide 2 Accident investigation,” available on line, contains further details about information source identification and acquisition available on line at http://www.ludwigbenner.org/manuals/Guide-2%20AI.pdf

Note: That 20 year old publication uses the ambiguous word “event” in lieu of today’s definitive term, “data BB” and a linear cause construct in lieu of today’s more definitive and versatile input/output terminology. Otherwise its content is still informative.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this Guide is to give investigator guidance to enable them to find sources and acquire information they can transform into building blocks (BBs) to develop descriptions of episodic occurrences.

The data sources include people involved in an episode (participants), people who witnessed an episode (witnesses), people who established participants’s behaviors during the episode (programmers.) and occasionally people who want to be heard even though they have no information about the episode to offer (volunteers.) Objects include those inflicting damage during an episode (participants), those that “witnessed” the episode (witnesses) and those that exercised control during the episode (controllers.) It is helpful to think of all as "witness plates" on which data was implanted during the episode.

HOW TO IDENTIFY SOURCES

The first step ti identifying sources of information for potential BBs is creating an inventory of the names of all the individuals and objects that were involved in the episode. The list will grow as relevant new people, objects energies are discovered. This list can be used to label the actor coordinate of the STEP-MES matrix. The list is initiated during site “walk throughs” of the episode scene, and off site, from photos or videos of the scene, descriptions of the scene by others, manufacturers’ manuals, design and s built drawings and specifications, operational records, episode history, training materials, test or simulation results, hazard analyses, cods and standards and people’s recollections of the episode can be sources of information for you. Expand the list as the investigation leads to other sources. Any data BB can be a starting point.

ACQUIRING INPUTS FROM PEOPLE

Human frailties make people the least reliable sources of information to transform into input data BBs. Nevertheless, investigators must include them as information sources during investigations, but also take steps to avoid misinformation finding its way into a STEP-MES array. Investigators must treat participants, observers, and programmers differently to acquire the information they need. All three have their specific information limits, recall capabilities and interests as investigation information sources.

Participants have a limited view of what happened because of the episode dynamics, and are reluctant to disclose what they know because of their concern about culpability and their self interests to protect themselves.

Observers may be reluctant to get involved with something in which they have no direct interest , but may be willing to share their observations as a societal obligation with proper treatment.

Programmers may also be reluctant sources because of their concerns about their potential culpability for the episode, but they can provide the premises, assumptions decisions and actions influencing the equipment or procedures involved in the episode.

Recognizing these influences, some tools can help investigators get information that they need. Individual coming forward to offer information can be categorized quickly as witness with useful information and volunteers without useful information about the episode. It is important to remember Axioms 5 and 6: see Top 10 Axioms for investigators

    6. Observer (witness) has it, you need it, and observer (witness) doesn’t have to give it to you.

    5. Things react predictably without thinking during episodes and tell all but only if you can "read or hear" what they have to "tell"

These Axioms help investigators keep a respectful attitude when interviewing people or examining objects to “hear” what they have to say.

Information from episode participants

Participants are people, objects or energies that may be directly involved in episodes, such as operators, responders, supervisors, injured parties, or clean up crew members or people, objects or energies inflicting harm. These individual “actors” have the potential to describe data BBs directly to investigators, requiring minimal transformation, or other information leading to data BBs.

People involved in episodes typically respond to what they think is happening during episodes, and based on their diagnosis, apply “cookbook” responses or devise innovative responses. They may try to respond to questioning with what they think the investigator should hear (experiential bias), or wants to hear (confirmation bias.)

Objects, on the other hand, offer no such resistance and will respond truthfully to investigators’ inquiries if investigators know how to do that. The Investigator’s General Decision Model and its application provide an information acquisition process that can bring out information from people or objects for needed data BBs.

Information from episode witnesses.

Witnesses may be individuals who were in a position for their five senses to acquire inputs during an episode, and remember them for retrieval later. They may recall some or all of the steps for each action being pursued by investigators. Object witnesses are any “witness plates” that capture information during an episode, such as flight data or other kinds of event recorders, logs, temperature tracking gauges, damaged equipment or debris.

Information from episode programmers

Actions by designers, trainers, supervisors, executives, companions or c-workers, relatives, opponents, marketers and other often influence what participants or witnesses did during episodes. Investigators need to look for inputs to each step of the investigators' General Decision Model to identify influences that were necessary to produce them. Using the STEP-MES matrix helps investigators do that.

Information from controllers involved

Another group of influences are controller of actions by people and objects. Controllers may be individuals who control behaviors of others, or devices that control equipment functions dependent on inputs from sensors, for example. In that case, investigators can also pursue them with the Investigators’ General Decision Model.

INVESTIGATORS' GENERAL DECISION MODEL

investigator's General Decision Model

Source: (Original) FOUR ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION GAMES, Appendix V-F, Lufred Industries (now Ludwig Benner & Associates) Oakton, VA 1982

This model flow charts the general process which leads investigators to identify actions by people, objects or energies during episodes. Episodes end when a decision maker or object redirects the process to a desired outcome. An experienced investigation practitioner developed this model byr by consolidating observations during interviews of many accident investigation witnesses, and acquisition of data from objects. Guidance for applying the model in investigations follows the model.

APPLYING THE
INVESTIGATORS' GENERAL DECISION MODEL

This Model describes the general process for investigators to use to lead them to information about actions by people, objects and energies during any kind of episode. It helps with people interviews and object examinations. The model helps investigators discover and define changes, signals they emit; their detection, communication, and diagnosis; decisions required during the process, decision influences, and the outcomes of those decisions. The decisions may be made by human beings or objects with physical, electronic or other controls, for example.

Model uses

By investigating each block and necessary inputs, investigators can find the influences of supervision, training, design, procedures, supervisory direction, management presentations and policies, and other "programmer" input sources influencing each of these blocks, investigators can link specific prior experiences and actions or "human factors" or designed controls to each block.

Note: Influencing actions are sometimes called precursors; they are actually part of the episode that needs to be included in the episode description.

This tracking of each action-taking process element enables investigators to define data BBs and build arrays showing specific relationships among actions as inputs for subsequent user actions. It also helps investigators pinpoint the places to look for concrete actions (behaviors) that will serve user's responsive action needs. The specificity of BBs avoids the problems with data characterizing or data or lessons learned in subjective, ambiguous or abstract "human factors" terms such as errors, failures, causes, malfunctions, neglect, inattention, inadequate, wrong, unsafe, skill errors, latent failures, active failures, "did nots" etc.

Application procedure

To apply this Model during investigation interviews or examinations, identify people or objects that appear to have had a role in the episode. Then begin to look for changes in the episode process or its environment that would have created an original need for action by some person or object to keep the process progressing toward its intended outcome. Then follow the same procedure for subsequent changes until the incident is understood and documented.

  1. When you identify a change, determine if it displayed or emitted some kind on signal , active or passive, that the person or sensor objects could have noticed. If it didn't, explore why it didn't and what effect that had on the outcome.
  2. If it did emit a signal, explore whether the person or sensor saw, heard, felt or otherwise "observed" the signal. If not, explore why not, and what effect that had on the outcome.
  3. If the person or sensor observed the signal, was the signal diagnosed correctly, in the sense that the person or controller was able predict the consequence of the change from the signal and their knowledge of the system and its operation. If not, explore why not, and its effects.
  4. If the predicted consequences of the change were correctly identified, did the person or controller recognize a need to do something to counter those consequences? If not, explore why not, and its effects.
  5. If so, did the person or controller identify the choices for action that were available for successful intervention? Was this a new situation were the action had to be invented (adaptive response), or was this something that prior training or experience anticipated and provided the responses to implement (cook book response)? In other words, was the person or controller confronted by an adaptive or habituated response? (Here, you start to get into a person's decision making process, and potential personal judgment and values issues, so explore this area with empathy toward the witness, particularly for adaptive responses.)
  6. If any response actions were identified, did the person chose the"best" or an effective response to implement? If a successful response was not chosen, explore why it wasn't. To this point, you are asking for observations during an interview.
  7. If a potentially successful response was chosen, did the person or designer successfully implement the desired action? If not, explore why not.
  8. If a suitable response was implemented, the episode adapted to the change without an loss or harm. If the response did not achieve a no-harm outcome, explore why it didn't. Often this leads you to discovery of invalid system design assumptions or other design actions or programmer issues.

    After working with this model, investigators are in a much better position to acquire the data BBs needed to describe and document what happened than when a so-called "human error" or"failure" is alleged. Users will also be in a better position to identify data the need for their response actions after the episode.

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      Contact: Ludwig Benner, (luben) for support at ludwigbenner.org

FINDING BBs BY TREACKING CHANGES

The Change Tracking Method is another tool for investigators trying to find data to transform into a BB. To use this tool, investigators can develop a list of sequential changes, identifying what changed and what inputs produced the changes. The latter is used for documenting data BBs.

The general Change Tracking Method is to

  1. identify what changed first,
  2. track and list each successive change,
  3. identify the condition before each change,
  4. identify the condition after each change,
  5. define the differences, and
  6. define the effects.
  • This information enables STE-MES investigators to convert changes to input data BBs.
  • Procedures for CTM are presented in this Guide.

    INTRODUCTION

    The Change Tracking Method uses the traditional method of difference to identify changes that occur during a process. CTM's primary value is in guiding the thinking required to trace the "change makers" and their actions as an episode progresses.

    OBJECTIVE

    The objective of CTM is to present ways to identify the changes of state that occurred during an episode, and the actors and actions that produced those changes of state.

    APPLICABILITY

    This change tracking method is applicable during any stage of an investigation, but is most useful during the early stages to help identify the actors about whom the investigator(s) should acquire additional action data. The changes identified should be used to support BB and MES Matrix development.

    CAUTION:

    Do not use only CTM to describe what happened, because its output format is LINEAR.

    DATA REQUIRED

    This method requires a cursory awareness of the nature of the episode being studied. It also requires a modest understanding of a process's expected operations within which changes of state occurred during the episode, and data about the actual state of the system and its environment at the time the episode began and ended.

    DATA SOURCES

    CTM requires concrete observations of, or data from, any person, document or animate or inanimate source, including the description of things remaining after an episode. CTM uses direct observation, sequential logic and deductive reasoning from data sources.

    DATA PRESENTATION

    The work product of the CTM is a list of sequential changes of state that begin with the initial deviation from a normal state of the system. It documents the changes that led to the outcome of interest. A typical format for CTM documentation is shown in Figure 4-1.

    Figure 4-1 Change Tracking Documentation Format

    WHAT
    CHANGED
    SITUATION
    NOW
    SITUATION
    EARLIER
    WHAT IS
    DIFFERENCE
    WHAT ARE
    EFFECTS





    Use comparisons to identify changes. Begin by considering circumstances when no episode occurred, and then considering the circumstances present when the episode occurred. When differences are observed, compare the episode circumstances with the no-episode circumstances to isolate changes that had occurred.

    EXAMPLE: A container used to store fluids has been functioning without overflowing for years. Today the container overflowed. What changed?

    CHANGE TRACKING PROCEDURE

    1. Try to identify the actual state of dynamic equilibrium of the system immediately before the episode of interest began. That state may be considered the state at a time when the system was functioning normally, or as desired or designed. While functioning normally, the system was probably adjusting continuously to potentially disruptive episodes, but continuing to function as intended and produce the intended outputs. The changes of interest are any changes to which the system had to react to maintain its dynamic equilibrium, but didn't. These changes may be simple or compound changes, and the time spans involved may be moments or years.

    Q: What changed before or around the time the episode began?

    EXAMPLE: The container was filled with more fluid than usual, and the fluid overflowed. The same quantity of fluid had been piped to the container previously but it hadn't overflowed, because a drain pipe had diverted the excess fluid into a sump. This time it didn't. Thus the change of interest is in the overflow system that did not function as it had previously.

    Figure 4-2 Change Tracking Documentation Example 1

    WHAT
    CHANGED

    SITUATION
    NOW

    SITUATION
    EARLIER

    WHAT IS
    DIFFERENCE

    WHAT ARE
    EFFECTS

    ?

    excess fluid spilled onto ground around container

    excess fluid flowed into a sump
    Where excess fluid went
    undesired spill

    2. Any previous or subsequent changes of state leading to or resulting from that change of state are then explored, by naming the person or thing involved, and examining its state during or before the episode.

    Q: What changed before (after) the first change?

    EXAMPLE: As the container was being overfilled, the fluid could not be diverted by the drain pipe because it was partially plugged. Residue was found on the drain pipe walls, reducing its cross-sectional area. The last time spilled fluid was washed off the side of the tank, a new cleaner was used that coagulated and left the residue in the drain pipe. So the excess fluid could not run through the drain at a fast enough rate to keep from overflowing the container. The new cleaner was a "before" change of state, as was the partially plugged pipe. To avert the overflow, an adaptive response (counter-change) had to be initiated but the operators who used the new cleaner were unaware of the change in the drain pipe. The overflow was an "after" change of state around the container that resulted from the earlier changes.

    Figure 4-3 Change Tracking Documentation Example 2

    WHAT
    CHANGED

    SITUATION
    NOW

    SITUATION
    EARLIER

    WHAT IS
    DIFFERENCE

    WHAT ARE
    EFFECTS

    new cleaner introduced
    cleaner created residue
    old cleaner left no residue
    residue formed in tank
    cleaner left residue in drain pipe
    residue clogged drain pipe

    overflow drain to sump constricted

    overflow drain to sump fully open
    flow capacity of excess fluid to sump
    excess fluid run-off restricted
    amount of fluid loaded into container

    excess fluid loaded into container

    correct amount of fluid loaded into container
    amount of fluid loaded into container
    excess fluid had to flow someplace after container was full
    where excess fluid flowed
    flowed onto ground around container
    flowed into sump
    where fluid went
    undesired fluid spill

    3. Track and list, in sequence, the changes involved in the episode. Start with the first change that was introduced, for which a counter-change was necessary, and then list the subsequent changes that you found.

    Q: What were the changes, in the order of their initiation, that may have had a bearing on the episode.

    EXAMPLE: List changes in data BB format, in proper sequence:

        1. ? introduced new cleaner

        2. Cleaner formed coagulants with fluid residues.

        3. Coagulant residues changed pipe flow capacity.

        4. Pipe impaired routine overflow protection.

        5. Excess fluid overflowed around container.

    When you enter these BBs on the STEP-MES matrix and perform the necessary/sufficient input BB test on each new BB, you would recognize the need to add more input BBs to each of these new BBs.

    COMMENTS

    Use the results of this change analysis to support BB preparation and modeling of scenario. The change analysis may provide a method of defining what information fnvestigators should consider with a logic tree or MES Matrix.

    CAUTION

    THE ABOVE EXAMPLE, WHICH IS TYPICAL, SHOWS HOW CTM TENDS TO TRACE CHANGES IN A LINEAR 'CHAIN-OF-EVENTS' THINKING MODE.

    Use MES Matrixes and BackSTEP Trees to avoid this pitfall in all investigations.

    For additional discussion of change and change analysis, refer to original work in Johnson, W.G., MORT SAFETY ASSURANCE SYSTEMS, Marcel Dekker, Inc. NY 1980, p 53-72.

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